Money blog: 'Very big market event playing out' over US recession fear - impact on interest rates could be 'huge' (2024)

Top news
  • Global stock markets tumble amid fears of US recession
  • Explained:US recession could be 'huge' for global economy - and accelerate interest rate cuts in UK
  • New £190 switching offer from TSB - here's what you need to know
  • Aldi launches latest copycat product - it's much cheaper but what do nutritionists think?
Essential reads
  • Money Problem:'I cancelled a booking and they won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice - what are my rights?'
  • Is equity release ever a good idea? Industry experts we spoke all seems to agree
  • Supermarkets and restaurants where kids can eat for free or cheap
  • Tax rises Labour could introduce in the autumn budget
  • What you can do if landlord won't fix mould - but it's risky
  • Best of the Money blog - an archive of features

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09:47:56

Explained: US recession could be 'huge' for global economy - and accelerate interest rate cuts in UK

We've had CNBC business presenter Karen Tso on air explaining the stock market turbulence we're seeing this morning - and she says the underlying factors could have a significant impact on global interest rates.

She described the stock market falls we reported on in our previous post as a "very big market event playing out".

It's been caused by fears the US could enter recession - "a complete U-turn to where we were just a number of weeks ago, when we were talking about the resilience of the US economy".

Some 114,000 jobs were created in July - significantly lower than the 175,000 new roles forecast by Wall Street.

Analysts at JPMorgan now think there is a50% probability of a US recession - which it says would result in a previously hawkish US Fed cutting interest rates by 50bp in September and again in November.

For context, the UK just had its first 25bp cut last week - with the Bank of England warning the path to lower rates will not be quick.

But Tso thinks events unfolding now could change the mindset of central banks around the world.

She told Sky News: "The consequences are huge because it's not just the Fed we're talking about here.

"If this is the case and we're talking about a change to monetary policy in the US, it could mean other central banks from the ECB to the Bank of England to beyond could be talking about more aggressive rate cuts."

She pointed out that finance ministers in Asia are taking to the airways to try to encourage calm.

"It's causing finance ministers to come out from Japan to Thailand to talk about just how resilient these markets are," she said.

"They are coordinating action, they are concerned, and they're broadcasting that to some of the market participants."

11:22:12

New £190 switching offer from TSB - here's what you need to know

TSB is offering switchers £100 in cash and at least £90 in incentives - but it's worth doing your research before making the move.

The incentive is triple cashback on its Spend and Save accounts worth up to £90, and the choice of a hotel stay, cinema tickets or a subscription to Now TV.

What is TSB like for customers?

Which? says: "TSB came joint 18th out of 21 providers in our annual survey of the best bank and bank accounts, with a customer score of 69%.

"It got average scores for its customer service, how it deals with complaints and its online and mobile banking. It received two stars for its branch and telephone banking service."

What's the small print?

As is usual, you have to use the Current Account Switch Service.

You'll then have to log in to the TSB app and make at least five payments using your debit card before 27 September.

You're ineligible if you've received TSB switching rewards since 1 October 2022 or you're intending to switch from another TSB account.

What other switching deals are on offer?

Barclays is offering £175 free cash, Apple TV subscriptions, Major League Soccer stream and access to a 5.12% saving account to new customers.

To get the offer, you can't have received switch cash from Barclays before.

You must also have two direct debits set up, pay in at least £800 by 30 August 2024, and join its Blue Rewards scheme, which comes with a £5 monthly fee.

The £175 is paid within 28 days of all the criteria being met.

Elsewhere, Co-opwill give you £100 plus £10 cashback for six months and an insurance package.

09:26:07

Fears of US recession send stock markets tumbling

By Daniel Binns, business reporter

Stock markets around the world have dropped sharply today amid fears the US economy may be heading for a recession.

The UK's FTSE 100 was down more than 2% after the markets opened, while the FTSE 250 fell more than 3%.

Otherexchangesin Europe, including in France, Portugal and Spain, fell by similar levels, while Germany's Dax was down 1%.

It follows much steeper drops in Asia earlier today - and further falls are expected in the US when markets open there later.

Japan's Nikkei 225 share index was down more than 12% at the close on Monday - its biggest fall since "Black Monday" in October 1987. The country's broader Topix index also fell by a similar level.

South Korea's Kospi index dropped more than 9%, while Taiwan's Taiex exchange slipped by 8.4%.

Markets in Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines also fell by around 2% and 3%.

The declines prompted the triggering of circuit breakers - in which the trading of stocks and derivatives is halted for 20 minutes - by some exchanges during the day.

It comes after US jobs market data on Friday came inmuch lower than expected for July, sending the country's stock markets tumbling.

Some 114,000 jobs were created during the month - significantly lower than the 175,000 new roles forecast by Wall Street.

The figure was the weakest since December last year and the second weakest since the start of theCOVID pandemicin the West in March 2020.

Robert Carnell, from financial services firm ING, said: "What we are looking at now is a situation where the market is viewing what's going on in the US macroeconomy as ticking the recession box."

Read the full story here...

07:01:10

Aldi launches latest copycat product - but is it what it seems?

Aldi is back with another copycat product, this time launching a dupe for a market leading kefir drink.

The budget supermarket has introduced the drinks under a brand called Beautiful Everyday, which bears a striking resemblance to the Biotful Gut Health's packaging.

However, their latest dupe is not all that it seems - as the Money team understands the drink has been created in collaboration with Biotful, which means the brand will benefit from any sales.

Which all begs the question - what's the difference, other than Aldi's being much, much cheaper? We have taken a look - and asked some nutritionists for their thoughts...

The branding of the two products is almost identical, with similar colours, logos and motifs.

Aldi's costs £1.99 for a 750ml bottle, compared with £3.50 for a litre of Biotiful's branded equivalent.

Nutritionist Gabriela Peaco*ckexplained that kefir contained probiotic cultures, which help digestion, liver detoxification, hormonal balance, and overall health.

She described it as like a "yoghurt on steroids" and recommended incorporating it into your daily routine.

We asked her to compare the two products based on their ingredients list.

Here's what she said:

"When comparing these two kefir brands, Biotiful and Aldi's own brand, it's important to note that their ingredient lists are very similar. However, the Aldi product uses very low-fat milk.

"I prefer Biotiful because it uses milk with proper fat, which is actually very healthy and important for us.

"So, if I had to choose between the two, I would opt for the Biotiful product for its nutritional benefits."

She also noted that kefir was a dairy product and may not be suitable for those following a vegan or dairy-free diet, or those who are lactose intolerant.

BeanieRobinson, a nutritionist from The Health Space, said there were no stark differences between the two products...

"The Aldi one looks like they have used low fat milk, so there are less calories in this Aldi drink," she said.

"It is unclear which particular bacteria strains they have used, as unlike the Biotiful one, it doesn't mention them.

"But the bottom line is that I would say if budget allows, always go for the organic full fat kefir to get the benefits of the fats and the organic milk."

She advised going for the unflavoured versions of the drinks, as the flavoured ones contain additives.

Dr Jibin He, who is a chartered food scientist at Teesside University, said the ingredients in the Biotful drink showed it was a live kefir culture - but suggested a homemade kefir might actually be the best option.

It includes, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus Acidophilus, Lactobacillus Casei and Lactobacillus Rhamnosus.

"A quick search reveals that these cultures can also have other probiotic bacteria besides the ones mentioned on the package," he said.

"There may be a difference between people who make kefir traditionally at home versus the commercial version of kefir, which could have different effects."

He explained that research on the benefits of kefir drinks was not conclusive, and for probiotics to have a genuine effect, there must be substantially more bacteria that can survive the journey through the stomach to reach the gut.

Aldi has long been associated with dupe products - you can see a few of its own versions of well-known brands in the photo below...

It has also partnered with brands in the past.

One of its most recent partnerships was with BrewDog, with the two companies working together in 2020 to create the "Anti Establishment IPA".

06:39:52

'I cancelled a booking and they won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice - what are my rights?'

Every Monday we get an expert to answer your Money Problems or consumer disputes. Find out how to submit yours at the bottom of this post. Today's question is...

I booked online for my son to attend a trampoline session. He didn't want to go and I cancelled a day before the event, in the same week that I booked. They won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice. Which is impossible - I booked and cancelled in the same week.

Laley

We asked Money blog regular expert Scott Dixon, from The Complaints Resolver, to take a look at this one.

The law

Scott outlines some legislation that applies in this case:

  • S62 Consumer Rights Act 2015has a requirement for contract terms and notices to be fair. An unfair term of a contract is not binding on the consumer. Any contract terms which unfairly tilt the balance in favour of the trader against the consumer is void. Key terms of a contract must be bold, fair, transparent and balanced - they cannot be buried in the small print of T&Cs.
  • The Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations 2008protects consumers from unfair or misleading trading practices and bans acts and omissions that entice consumers into making a decision they would otherwise not have made.

The consumer dispute experts says: "I take the view that you were misled into making a transactional decision you would not have otherwise made."

What can you do?

Scott says: "You can raise a chargeback with your bank or credit card provider within 120 days of your payment to get a refund. You need to cite 'breach of contract' under the Consumer Rights Act 2015 to enact a chargeback.

"Stress that it was impossible to give 14 days' notice to cancel as the retailer accepted your booking days before you were due to go.

"This constitutes an unfair term of a consumer contract that is not binding on the consumer and voids the contract."

Your bank or credit card provider can reverse the payment and give the retailer an opportunity to present their case.

"Retailers don't like dealing with chargebacks as they are problematic and costly to resolve," Scott says.

Next steps

As a last resort you can take your case to the Small Claims Court in England and Wales - or use the respective legal routes in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Scott says: "Before you file a claim, send screenshots of the court papers to the company setting your case out and demanding a refund within seven days."

This usually prompts a resolution before you have to actually lodge the claim, Scott says.

"I would also report this firm to Trading Standards," says Scott.

This feature is not intended as financial advice - the aim is to give an overview of the things you should think about. Submit your dilemma or consumer dispute via:

  • The form above - you need to leave a phone number or email address so we can contact you for further details;
  • Email news@skynews.com with the subject line "Money blog";
  • WhatsApp us here.

06:30:31

Morrisons revamping More loyalty scheme amid turnaround effort

Morrisons is hoping to increase the number of transactions involving its free loyalty scheme to 70% as it fights to regain its place in the "big four".

The supermarket, which was first overtaken into fourth spot for market share by discount rival Aldi in 2022, has loyalty sales of around 50%.

According to The Grocer, chief executive Rami Baitiéh has told suppliers about the loyalty expansion, and has said he wants it to move from being a "shield" to a "sword" against competitors.

There will be more member-only offers and additional "hyper-personalised" offers following the introducing of My Points Boosters in April. The scheme allowed customers to choose 10 brands that give them extra points.

06:28:05

Big expansion of Tesco's marketplace

Tesco's version of Amazon, which they're keen not to be labelled their version of Amazon, has more than doubled the number of products available.

Regular readers may remember we reported on this back in June, when CEO Ken Murphy said the supermarket giant was not trying to replicate Amazon and be "all things to all people".

Since then, when 9,000 products were available, the marketplace for third-party sellers has expanded to offer 20,000 products.

They cover categories such as garden, DIY, homeware, toys, sports, baby, beauty and petcare.

06:27:13

Welcome back to the Money blog

The Money blog is back for another week of consumer news, personal finance tipsand all the latest on the economy.

This is how the week is shaping up...

Monday: This week's Money Problemfocuses on a dispute over a cancellation period.

Tuesday: We're continuing a new series to investigate whether some of your favourite sweets and treats from the past will ever return - we've called it Bring It Back and it'll run every Tuesday until we, or you, run out of ideas. We'll also have our regular Tuesday Basically...feature.

Wednesday: We are in London for this week'sCheap Eats, in which Michelin chefs reveal their favourite spots to get a meal for two for less than £40.

Thursday: Savings Championfounder Anna Bowes will be back with her weekly insight into the savings market.

Friday: We'll have everything you need to know about the mortgage market this week with the guys from Moneyfacts.

Running every weekday, Money features a morning markets round-up from theSky News business teamand regular updates and analysis from our business, City and economic correspondents, editors and presenters -Ed Conway,Mark Kleinman,Ian King,Paul KelsoandAdele Robinson.

You'll also be able to streamBusiness Live with Ian King onweekdays at 11.30am and 4.30pm.

Bookmarknews.sky.com/moneyand check back from 8am, and through the day, each weekday.

The Money team is Bhvishya Patel, Jess Sharp, Katie Williams, Brad Young, Ollie Cooper and Mark Wyatt, with sub-editing by Isobel Souster. The blog is edited by Jimmy Rice.

18:28:43

Best of the Money blog - an archive

The Money blog will return on Monday - meantime, why not scroll through some of our best and most popular features below...

JULY

JUNE

MAY

APRIL

MARCH

FEBRUARY

JANUARY

08:27:16

'I'd think 100 times before doing it': Industry insiders on equity release

Equity release refers to taking money out of your home without having to sell the property.You can take the money you release as a lump sum or in several smaller amounts.

There are two ways to do this:

  • Lifetime mortgage: This is the most common type and is a long-term loan secured against the value of your property. You borrowa cash lump sum and then choose to make repayments – -there is no requirement to pay it back monthly and you can just let the interest build up. The loan and the built-up interest must be paid back when the borrower dies or when they need to move into long-term care;
  • Home reversion: You sell a part or all of your home to a provider in return for a lump sum or regular payments. You have the right to continue living in the property until you die and the reversion company then gets a share of the proceeds when your home is sold.

To be eligible for equity release you must:

  • Be at least 55;
  • Own a home in the UK and it must be your main residence;
  • Have to meet a minimum property value – usuallyit's £75,000.

Pros

Richard Dana, founder and CEO of the family mortgage specialist Tembo, says the big benefit of equity release is it allows you to remain in the home you want to live in for the rest of your life without any risk of it getting repossessed.

It also allows you to "get access to cash where there might not be any other options".

"If people want to stay in their home but they want to repay an outstanding mortgage or they need some money for their retirement, they want to boost their retirement funds, that is the main benefit," he says.

Cons

But equity release comes with many pitfalls that need to be taken into consideration.

Mr Dana says while there is "a lot of regulation around it", it is "really expensive - particularly now".

"Unless you have to do it in the current environment, it's very expensive and it means the value of your assets that you might leave to your loved ones is going to go down a lot more. So you are going to be paying a lot more interest than you would have been," he says.

He says people must seek independent advice, speak with family and consider all options.

"Speak to not just an equity release broker but a mortgage broker - look at different options available to you. Depending on what you need the money for, you might be able to find alternative solutions, for example you can downsize."

Caroline Fletcher-Shaw, equity release legal expert atWilkin Chapman Solicitors, says that as well as reducing your estate, and therefore any inheritance you want to leave, it could also impact state benefits, as your income may be higher.

She says equity release "tends to have a higher interest rate than other products".

Property finance expert Dr Alla Koblyakova warns borrowers are "practically losing their houses".

She notes that figures show 38% are using equity release for unsecured debt repayment which means "those people are in need".

"It's a good product to improve their lifestyle but the problem is how you spend the money," Dr Koblyakova says.

"If you are just paying existing debts that means you are losing your house and being charged such high interest rates. So you are having one debt to cover another debt which is expensive.

"I would suggest thinking 100 times before going for that sort of loan. If you can survive without that loan under the current climate I would suggest waiting until at least rates go down because then you would have less losses."

What advice would you give to someone being pressured into equity release?

"I think that would be an awful situation. Reputable companies shouldn't be going out there pressuring people to do equity release," Mrs Fletcher-Shaw says.

"If individuals are approached, they need to have the confidence to take that step back until they've sought professional advice.

"Financial advisers are key - they are going to be the ones that can really help individuals and understand their circ*mstances and whether an equity release would benefit them."

Dr Koblyakova warns: "As soon as someone is feeling pushed it means there is something wrong because a fair lender would never push anyone. They would explain in detail, trying to advertise the product but definitely not pushing the product."

One more thing to think about - inheritance tax

Mark Ashbridge, co-founder and managing director of Ashbridge Partners, a finance and mortgage advisory firm, says there are possible inheritance tax planning opportunities with equity release.

"Inheritance tax is charged on the value of your assets at death - if you have released equity from your home and handed on the monies to the next generation that survive for the next seven years, then you have taken that out of your estate," he says.

"That can be quite an efficient planning tool because you can remain in your own home and you are not needing to service that interest."

It can also serve as a "means of assessing capital", he says.

However, he notes he has examples where it is more appropriate for the client to remain within the conventional mortgage market.

"Either because they don't want the loan for a long period of time, certainly not until their death, and so it makes sense to avoid the early repayment charges that could come with it."

Money blog: 'Very big market event playing out' over US recession fear - impact on interest rates could be 'huge' (2024)
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